Project Risk Screening Matrix for River Management and Restoration

The ‘project risk screening matrix’ derives from a broader effort to assist US government agency staff in reviewing proposed stream management and restoration projects more efficiently and effectively. The River Restoration Analysis Tool (RiverRAT) developed through this effort provides a thorough, comprehensive and auditable approach to review and evaluate proposed stream actions and projects ( www.restorationreview.com ). The matrix was initially developed as the first step in applying the RiverRAT, its purpose being to assist reviewers in assessing the risk to natural resources associated with a particular proposal and matching the intensity of their review to the severity of that risk. Hence, the primary application of the matrix to date has been to identify and screen out low risk projects that may be dealt with expeditiously, so freeing the time and technical resources needed to allow deep reviews of higher risk projects. A second form of screening emerged from this primary function because the matrix proved adept at identifying the minimum level of site and project characterization required to support initial risk assessment. On this basis, proposals lacking adequate information can also be screened out, being referred back to the proponent with a request for additional information. More recently, new and novel versions of the matrix, featuring modification and refinement of one or both of the original axes, have emerged to widen and refine its application to linear infrastructure (e.g. pipelines, roads, and electrical transmission lines), in‐stream structures (e.g. large wood placement and culvert removal), and pre‐application, regulatory, decision‐support tools. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Backtesting portfolio value-at-risk with estimated portfolio weights

This article theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio value-at-risk (VaR) with estimation risk in an intrinsically multi-variate framework. It particularly takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating portfolio weights and that from estimating the multi-variate dynamic model make the existing methods in a univariate framework inapplicable. It proposes a general theory to quantify estimation risk applicable to the present problem and suggests practitioners a simple but effective way to implement valid inference to overcome the effect of estimation risk in backtesting portfolio VaR. In particular, we apply our theory to the efficient mean-variance-skewness portfolio for a multi-variate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with multi-variate general hyperbolic distributed innovations. Some Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application demonstrate the merits of our method.     

Nature and etiology of hollow-organ abdominal injuries in frontal crashes

Injuries to the hollow organs of the lower digestive system carry substantial risk of complication due to infection and blood loss, and commonly require invasive abdominal surgery to diagnose and treat. The causes of, and risk factors for, lower abdomen injury in automobile collisions are poorly understood. The goal of this study was to investigate the risk factors and potential mechanisms of hollow-organ, lower abdomen injury in belted automobile occupants in frontal collisions.     

Quantitative risk assessment using a Japanese hydrogen refueling station model

Although hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) are becoming widespread across Japan and are essential for the operation of fuel cell vehicles, they present potential hazards. A large number of accidents such as explosions or fires have been reported, rendering it necessary to conduct a number of qualitative and quantitative risk assessments for HRSs. Current safety codes and technical standards related to Japanese HRSs have been established based on the results of a qualitative risk assessment and quantitative effectiveness validation of safety measures over ten years ago. In the last decade, there has been much development in the technologies of the components or facilities used in domestic HRSs and much operational experience as well as knowledge to use hydrogen in HRSs safely have been gained through years of commercial operation. The purpose of the present study is to conduct a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the latest HRS model representing Japanese HRSs with the most current information and to identify the most significant scenarios that pose the greatest risks to the physical surroundings in the HRS model. The results of the QRA show that the risk contours of 10^?3 and 10^?4 per year were confined within the HRS boundaries, whereas the risk contours of 10^?5 and 10^?6 per year are still present outside the HRS. Comparing the breakdown of the individual risks (IRs) at the risk ranking points, we conclude that the risk of jet fire demonstrates the highest contribution to the risks at all of the risk ranking points and outside the station. To reduce these risks and confine the risk contour of 10^?6 per year within the HRS boundaries, it is necessary to consider risk mitigation measures for jet fires.     

基于新标准的俄罗斯釆金业职业风险评估

当前俄罗斯正在进行立法改革以实现治理体系现代化，其中改革的重点是国家管理体系中的劳动保护、工业安全和突发事件的应急处理。过去的立法体系侧重于对受伤员工提供健康补偿和医疗救护，而新的立法体系则以预防为主，以期通过建立完善的风险管理机制和运行规则，提高安全生产水平、普及安全文化教育，保障员工的生命安全。新标准强调企业必须进行职业风险评估，并将职业风险评估纳入企业工作管理体系。论文以采金业为例，选取伊尔库茨克州波戴波区金矿露天采场为研究案例，探讨了现代化职业风险评估的方法，明确了职业风险评估首先要进行危害鉴别，编制了风险源管理档案清单。采用实测员工风险因素的“记分法”和数学模拟“矩阵法”完成了伊尔库茨克州波戴波区金矿露天采场主要职业的风险评估。研究表明: 在钻井爆破作业场所，由碎石的喷射、粉尘的排放和噪声效应引起的危险为不可接受风险，通过实施安全生产制度（即遵守安全标准和技术要求、为工人提供防护装备）,可将高风险和不可接受风险化解为可接受风险；阐述了高风险职业，编制了风险手册，提出了改善工作条件的首要措施是消除影响爆破手和钻机操作员的有害因素，并为员工提供能更有效预防噪音和振动的个人防护用品。     

里必井田承压水带压开采评估

煤层底板承压水突出是发生水害事故的原因之一,要减少该类事故的发生,需对底板突水危险性进行准确评价。为保障里必井田承压水带压开采的安全进行,基于煤层底板突水研究理论分析,采用常规突水系数法和等效厚度突水系数法,分别对里必井田内3#煤和15#煤的奥灰水突水危险性进行了研究。研究发现,奥灰水对于3#煤的开采影响不大,但在局部构造及陷落柱发育地段及采区东北部区域仍存在一定的突水可能性;奥灰水对15#煤开采具有较大威胁,大部分区域具有较大突水危险性。等效岩层厚度法计算的突水系数考虑了不同性质岩层的岩石强度和阻水能力,计算更接近生产实际,结果更可靠;且在对突水系数法进一步优化后,其评价的结果可以更精确。     

探究地质矿产勘查风险原因的分析及应对对策

我国有许多种类的地质矿产资源,地质矿产资源的勘查与开发有效地促进了我国工业生产的进步。整个社会的发展对于地质矿产资源的需求也非常高,所以必须开展高效的矿产资源勘查活动。但是目前地质矿产资源勘查中经常会存在一系列的风险,会对勘查人员及整个矿床造成不同程度的损害。相关企业必须采取有效的应对策略,有效降低企业的勘查风险。本文主要是基于地质矿产勘查风险原因的分析及应对策略两方面来展开进一步论述的。     

The introduction strategy of the emerging online marketplace considering risk attitude and channel power

With the development of online retailing, traditional online platforms have begun to offer a novel online marketplace format that brings many advantages but also gives rise to problems such as operational risks and changes in channel power. This paper studies whether the e-tailer and manufacturer can reach a consensus on introducing the marketplace channel and obtains the following insights. First, the manufacturer always prefers to introduce the online marketplace in the model where she acts as the leader. The e-tailer has the same preference for the online marketplace when he moves later or simultaneously with the manufacturer. Second, as the participants become more risk-averse, the manufacturer and e-tailer would be less willing to introduce the online marketplace, and it would be more difficult to realize the equilibrium strategy under all power structure models. Third, by combining the cross-effect of the attitude towards risks and the power structure, we find that when the participants prefer risks and the e-tailer has strong channel power, it would be much easier for the two parties to reach a consensus about introducing the online marketplace.     

非平稳条件下基于贝叶斯网络的内涝风险评估和管理方法

受非平稳条件因素(如气候变化、城市化)的影响,近几年内涝灾害频发。以Z市某地块为研究区域,借助地理信息系统(ArcGIS)和暴雨雨洪管理模型(SWMM)实现研究区排水管网的水动力模拟。在不同降雨情境下,比较分析现状系统及不同改造方案下的系统溢流量等信息,计算内涝风险指数。采用贝叶斯网络分析工具(Bayes Server)对引发内涝风险的主要因素进行推理、识别和分析,进而构建内涝风险评估模型。该模型便于决策者根据设计需求,结合各因素的不确定性范围和发生概率值,综合选取最适合的改造措施,优化市政排水防涝规划,为市政基础设施建设提供了依据。